Texas Calculatem and Poker Office Blog

An evil bitch from Glasgow left a message (click here to download the wav file) on my answer phone demanding cash. Nasty!

Her number is 0141 222 5830 ext# 5 and she demanded that I get back to her or she'd pass on my details to the sheriff's office.

Why the fuck should I spend my time getting back to her? She can do all she wants to try and steal funds from me, but she's getting nothing!

Speaking of Glasgow, all this talk about Scotland leaving the United Kingdom is most baffling to me. Don't people have better things to think about? If my parents had happened to bring me up in Scotland, I wouldn't really give a toss whether I was ruled from England or not. All I'd be hoping for would be low taxes, loose Poker tables and volatile markets. I wonder people from the other side of the border thinkg about this?

Went on semi tilt last weekend. And subsequently didn't play all week, wasting a few evenings on Medieval Total War II instead.

As in Poker, the game is full of pretentious players, telling others what to do. I joined a 2v2 battle against the [oOo] clan. They thought they were good and said there were no rules. So I fielded an army with 80% cavalry and wiped them out. Upon which they called me a noob for using such a skewed army. SMT SMT.

However, on a friendlier note, I met a nice chap called manslaughter the great, who introduced me to a tool called xfire, that is useful for chatting and finding games online.

I've received surprisingly negative feedback from this post.

Juice wrote:

"a tight passive passive player is the definition of a calling station!

Dont be proud of such things! you are better than that!"

And an anonymous poster (who I suspect might have been Juice!) wrote:

"Either way edge its pretty rank!"

Isn't Poker about winning? What is the point in trying to emulate the professionals' style of play if it doesn't work at the tables that you play at?

In Helmuth's Play Poker Like the Pros, he recommends jamming the pot (in Limit Poker) with 77. Yet any of us know that there'll probably be overcards on the flop, and that you'll therefore face the tough decision about whether or not you face a higher pair when you miss your set on the flop.

Anyway, a hand from last night, at Laddies $0.10/$0.20 NL.

I was in late position with 54o and limped in.

The flop was J54 with no flush draw. The action was checked to me. So what I needed to worry about was a straight draw. I bet the pot and dealer+1 re-raised me.

What could he have? I didn't really fear sets of 4's or 5's, as the chances of someone having those were so slim. Only an idiot would call with something like J4 or J5 so the chances of those hands were slim too. A set of Jacks was a definite possibility. But any monkey playing attempting to emulate the "tight-aggressive" style would have raised pre-flop with them. I therefore put my opponent on AJ.

The turn was a King. The action was checked to me. So I decided to bet the pot again and was re-raised all in (calling the all in was only a tiny bit more than my bet).

The river was a 3, which failed to improve the villain's AJo, and I therefore took down the pot.

Nice! Or did the villain have something like QJo? Who knows. The only thing I didn't like about this hand was the fact that I only started with $15 of my original $20 buy in. As I could have taken an extra $5 if I'd been full. SMT SMT.

I was reading Krondat's blog and came across this interesting site. It's very similar to the strategy that I've been developing, where I wait for a monster hand and pile in.

For example, the following statement from Freeholdemstrategy is particularly good, as it basically states that there's nothing wrong with laying down a vulnerable hand even if you're ahead:

You often fold the best hand, but you don’t care because the pot is so small and you have very low odds of winning a big pot. Remember the goal of this holdem strategy is to win huge pots and lose small ones. If you constantly call when you hit an Ace with a Jack kicker you’ll come out behind in the long run.

You Are Balanced - Realist - Powerful

You feel your life is controlled both externally and internally. You have a good sense of what you can control and what you should let go. Depending on the situation, you sometimes try to exert more control. Other times, you accept things for what they are and go with the flow. You are a realist when it comes to luck. You don't attribute everything to luck, but you do know some things are random. You don't beat yourself up when bad things happen to you... But you do your best to try to make your own luck. When it comes to who's in charge, it's you. Life is a kingdom, and you're the grand ruler. You don't care much about what others think. But they better care what you think!

I was on a good roll at Laddies, playing a nice "Tight Passive (pre flop) - Passive (post flop)" game, according to Poker Office. And I'm going to try to analyse this hand by using its replay feature. Here we go...

I'm dealt KJo from early position (see screenshot), and decide to limp in. The action is limped around to the big blind, who checks.

There is $1.70 in the pot.

The flop is Ks3cJc.

That's excellent for me. As I have two pair. However, there are both straight and flush possibilities developing. The action is checked to me. And being the idiot that I am, I put $2.50 into the pot. Giving the first caller 1.47:1 to call. What a fool. It was obvious that anyone with a flush would call. And that subsequent callers would have draws for other hands. Anyway, there are two calls, before the dealer goes all in (a re-raise of $1.14). So myself and the two callers are forced to call t see the next hand.

There is $16.26 in the pot. And the turn is a Queen.

Oh no! I'm thinking. Anyone with AT has just hit a straight. And the pot is getting big. Fuck! So I check. The flop caller checks. And Jungeldyr bets $8.13. Half the pot. So I have 2:1 to call. What should I do?

Well, having commited so much to the pot. I called the $8.13 bet. What I should have done was analysed my outs. With 4 cards improving my hand to a full house, and 10.7:1 odds to hit, in hindsight it's clear that I should have folded. I'd only invested $3.84 in the pot so far. But was blinded by the greed of the $24.39 staring me in the face.

Anyway, Abbes called, and so we hit the river with $40.65 in the pot.

The river was an Ace. Damn. So now, anyone with a Ten has a straight, and there are two other contenders out there. I check, Abbes checks, and Jungeldyer goes all in for $5.94. Despite getting 7.9:1 odds on the call, I really felt that I was beat. And made the difficult fold.

Abbes called and so Jungeldyr was forced to show his 9cTc clubs.

AHHHHH!!!! What's almost as bad as losing this hand, is the fact that I didn't notice that 9T had also hit a straight on the turn. I really should get my glasses fixed.

Also, he was about 2.91:1 to improve to a straight or flush on the flop, and by calling his turn bet, I semi-fell into the fallacy of paying off players for their loose calls. He received an extra $8.13 from me, after his initial $2.50 call. So if we ignore the extra cash from the all-in calls, he got 4.25:1 payout from me, on a 2.91:1 proposition.

So how can I improve my play in the future? Well, I'm going to throw conventional stupidity out of the window, and try to play more passively in these situations. Players like Phil Gordon might be able to push peopel off these hands. But monkeys like me need to realise that they have no chance of protecting their hands, and should therefore try to wait for a safe card before proceeding.

What did I do wrong here? I don't think I maximised my return and may have bet too much....

** Game ID 663374766 starting - 2007-01-12 20:21:35
** Atlas [Hold em] (0.10|0.20 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- mauzj sitting in seat 1 with $15.55
- WintermuteDK sitting in seat 2 with $19.80
- KaiserPG sitting in seat 3 with $20.20
- robhay sitting in seat 4 with $12.11
- padawan sitting in seat 5 with $13.52 [Dealer]
- fenn sitting in seat 6 with $2.04
- Jeinsen sitting in seat 7 with $44.16
- jimmyo80 sitting in seat 8 with $23.55
- Scoobster sitting in seat 9 with $9.88
- Houston500 sitting in seat 10 with $24.16
fenn posted the small blind - $0.10
Jeinsen posted the big blind - $0.20
** Dealing card to mauzj: 3 of Spades, 3 of Hearts
jimmyo80 folded
Scoobster folded
Houston500 raised - $0.80
mauzj called - $0.80
WintermuteDK called - $0.80
KaiserPG folded
robhay folded
padawan folded
fenn folded
Jeinsen folded
** Dealing the flop: 10 of Diamonds, 5 of Hearts, 2 of Hearts
Houston500 checked
mauzj checked
WintermuteDK checked
** Dealing the turn: 4 of Spades
Houston500 bet - $1.00
mauzj called - $1.00
WintermuteDK folded
** Dealing the river: 6 of Clubs
Houston500 bet - $3.00
mauzj raised - $9.00
Houston500 folded
mauzj mucks:
mauzj wins $16.20 from the main pot
End of game 663374766

Many players like to protect their hands by betting a large percentage of the pot, in an attempt to making the calling of drawers by other players unprofitable.

However, they will often wrongly assume that, having protected their hand, they're safe to continue betting/protecting in future rounds. Even if scare cards land.

I've done some sums to work out the implied odds one would get, if we assume that a player betting the flop, will make a continuation on the turn. I plan on using this to help me loosen up my play in select situations.

I have assumed that the protecting player either bets the same absolute amount on the turn as on the flop. Or bets the same percentage of the pot on the turn, as they did on the flop. There are therefore two sets of implied odds to use.

Let's start off with some sums:

Let x be the percentage of the pot that the aggressor initially bets.

Let Pf be the size of the pot on the turn.

The aggressor therefore bets x * Pf on the flop. And the pot on the turn is

Pt = Pf + x * Pf + x * Pf
= Pf * (1+2x)

On the flop. Assuming a continuation bet of x% of the pot, the bet will be

Bf = x * Pt * (1+2x)

So the return on the x * Pf flop call will be

R = Pf + x * Pf + Bf
= Pf + x * Pf + x * Pt * (1+2x)
= xPf (1/x + 1 + 2x).

Since the risk is the initial x * Pf call, the odds are:

(2 + 1/x + 2x) : 1.

Similarly, if the continuation bet on the turn is still x * Pf (i.e. the same as the flop bet), then the return is

R = Pf + xPf + xPf,

and the Odds will therefore be

(2+1/x) : 1

Summary:

The implied odds, assuming a continuation bet of x% of the pot on the turn, are:

(2 + 1/x + 2x) : 1. (1)

The implied odds, assuming a continuation bet of x * Pf (i.e. same bet on the turn as on the flop) are :

(2+1/x) : 1 (2)

Tables:

I don't have Excel on this machine, but will produce some odds tables later.

Examples:

Assuming a continuation of x% of the flop on the turn...

x Odds
.1
0.5 3.5
1.0 5.0

Taking this further...

To find the minimum of (1), let

y = 2+1/x+2x

dy/dx = -1/(x^2) + 2

So the turning point is at 1/sqrt(2), which is around 0.71, or 70% of the pot. This gives us that the minimum odds of a constant percentage continuation bet are 4.8:1 !!!!

There is no real solution for a same sized turn bet. But we can see that the implied odds get larger as x gets smaller. So here's a small table

x odds
0.25 6:1
0.33 5:1
0.5 4:1
1 3:1

Anyway, I've just lost my buyin by calling an all in with a weak top pair. What an idiot. Please let me know if what I've written makes sense.

Watford will look to inflict more humiliation on Liverpool following their cup exploits against Arsenal. Can the Hornets record their first win in 11 games? If you're tempted to have a punt on any of this weekend's games, it's well worth having a look at the spread betting markets from Sporting Index. We've taken a look at some of the weekend prices (see previews below) - new clients can take advantage of our best offer yet:

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Weekend Premiership Preview

Watford v Liverpool (Saturday Prem Plus 12.45)

Unsurprisingly, Rafa Benitez would rather talk up his teams' Premiership record where they lead the form chart with one defeat in 10. The shambles of the cups should be strictly seen as a blip, with Liverpool otherwise watertight at the back - they've conceded only one goal in ten matches. Watford are already without Marlon King for the season and now top scorer Bouazza is sidelined with injury. Where will the goals come from with the team rooted to the bottom of the table? They've failed to score in six of their last nine games and have failed to take three points in their last 10 games. The bad news continues as Liverpool have recently spanked fellow strugglers Wigan and Charlton 4-0 and 3-0 respectively away from home. Will Sporting Index's prediction of a one goal win for Liverpool be too low? The Reds should start with Bellamy and Alonso who missed the midweek 6-3 embarrassment. They could prove the difference once more with both featuring on the scoresheet when Liverpool triumphed 2-0 against the Hornets last month. With no player cautioned in that game, Sporting Index's prediction of four bookings at Vicarage Road should stir up some interest amongst the punters.

Blackburn v Arsenal (Saturday Prem Plus 17.15)

Arsenal are raining goals at the moment. Charlton were hit for four in their last Premiership fixture, Liverpool were hit for six in the Carling Cup and let's not forget their 3-1 win in the FA Cup. However, Blackburn have much to shout about when it comes to form in front of goal. They've won their last three Premiership matches and scored four goals at Goodison on Sunday. With both teams in goalscoring form, Sporting Index surprisingly predict a total of only 2.4 to 2.6 goals at Ewood Park. The Gunners will look to their 6-2 win over Rovers last month for inspiration. However, with three goals in the last eight minutes, the scoreline was flattering. With 11 bookings in their last two encounters, can Arsenal live with another physical battle away from the Emirates? Their form against the 'big' teams is well known, but defeat away to Bolton, West Ham, Fulham and most recently Sheffield United, might get some punters questioning Sporting Index's prediction of a one goal victory for Arsenal.

Tottenham v Newcastle Utd (Sunday Sky Sports 1 16.00)

Tottenham find themselves four points from the top-six and the pressure is on to improve their festive record which saw one Premiership win in four. However, their home record is solid with only the blue and red half of Merseyside securing smash and grab wins this season at the Lane. They've won their last three home games and with Newcastle losing their last three away fixtures, Sporting Index reckon Spurs will sneak this by a one goal margin. Despite Lennon and Keane missing through injury, they have enough attacking ammunition in Berbatov, Defoe and Malbranque to breach a Newcastle defence without a clean sheet in eight games. However, the Magpies will boast of the fact they've won their last two meetings 3-1. The bragging rights end there with Spurs winning the preceding four games without conceding a goal! With only two bookings in Newcastle's 3-1 triumph last month, a few eyebrows might be raised to see Sporting Index predicting five cautions this time around.
For all the latest prices on this match, and to open your account, click here.

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The information contained herein is for your general information and use. In particular, it does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by Sporting Index Ltd and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining to make) any specific decisions

And today that fish was me!

While my play was hardly perfect (I called a short stacked all in with KQ and was dominated by AQ), Phil Gordon's book gave me some ideas on how to maximise my rewards. And assuming his tips worked, and were interpreted correctly, they gave me a good payout.

On my first table I won $84.91 from a $20 buy in. And on the 2nd table I lost $6.60. So on balance I did pretty well.

As well as getting lucky, I also installed Poker Office 2 on my new PC. It ran well on my dual core setup. And even records full hand histories. Here are some of my favourites from this evening. Please let me know if you think my play wasn't optimal:

** Hurricane [Hold em] (0.100.20 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- jimmyo80 sitting in seat 1 with $18.30
- Taribo sitting in seat 3 with $17.64
- JulleL sitting in seat 4 with $17.15
- MyOffice sitting in seat 5 with $27.40
- ante999 sitting in seat 6 with $20.36
- big-beaver sitting in seat 7 with $43.27
- michae1 sitting in seat 8 with $17.92
- vronkan sitting in seat 9 with $20.50
- The_Edge sitting in seat 10 with $58.69 [Dealer]
jimmyo80 posted the small blind - $0.10
Taribo posted the big blind - $0.20
** Dealing card to The_Edge: King of Hearts, King of Clubs
JulleL called - $0.20
MyOffice raised - $0.80
ante999 folded
big-beaver raised - $2.80
michae1 folded
vronkan folded

- big-beaver's massive overbet scared me. It was clear he had a massive premium hand such as AA, AK or QQ. I considered an all-in re-raise, but thought I'd be screwed if an Ace hit, and therefore just called).

The_Edge called - $2.80
jimmyo80 folded
Taribo folded
JulleL called - $2.80
MyOffice folded
** Dealing the flop: 10 of Hearts, King of Spades, 7 of Spades
JulleL checked
big-beaver bet - $4.75

Wow. What a nice flop. Nothing beats me. Though there's a flush draw on the board. To block the flush draw, I raised the pot back at Beaver. I could have just called to see what would happen, but Phil Gordon recommends the re-raise, as it's more likely to get action. Whereas if the opponent is drawing a hand, they'll just fold in the next round if they miss. Or might get scared if a third spade appears, and they aren't drawing to the spade flush.

The_Edge raised - $23.75
JulleL folded
big-beaver went all-in - $35.72

Good times! Beaver went all in when I was miles ahead. What could I do but oblige him.

The_Edge called - $40.47
** Dealing the turn: 7 of Hearts
** Dealing the river: 5 of Clubs
big-beaver shows: King of Diamonds, Ace of Diamonds
The_Edge shows: King of Hearts, King of Clubs
The_Edge wins $87.44 from the main pot

And here's yet another great hand:

** Hurricane [Hold em] (0.100.20 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- jimmyo80 sitting in seat 1 with $20.00
- jbdb3 sitting in seat 2 with $19.72
- Taribo sitting in seat 3 with $18.50
- PhillMill sitting in seat 4 with $9.58
- matchy1 sitting in seat 5 with $12.92
- R_director sitting in seat 6 with $10.30
- big-beaver sitting in seat 7 with $51.65 [Dealer]
- michae1 sitting in seat 8 with $19.70
- _Don19_ sitting in seat 9 with $19.80
- The_Edge sitting in seat 10 with $38.36
michae1 posted the small blind - $0.10
_Don19_ posted the big blind - $0.20
** Dealing card to The_Edge: 9 of Diamonds, 9 of Clubs

Lots of more experienced players would recommend raise. However, I'm a fish, and at these levels, 99 is nothing more than a drawing hand as you're so vulnerable to overcards. Also, from UTG, I didn't want to get re-raised.

The_Edge called - $0.20
jbdb3 folded
Taribo called - $0.20
matchy1 folded
R_director called - $0.20
big-beaver folded
michae1 called - $0.20
_Don19_ bet - $1.06

What a nasty raise! However, I looked at Don's balance and saw that he had $19.80 in front of him. So he had more than enough to pay out on my 8/1 shot at hitting trips. Also, the presence of 3 other limpers, increased the odds of other players helping to build the pot.

The_Edge called - $1.06
Taribo folded
R_director called - $1.06
michae1 called - $1.06
** Dealing the flop: 9 of Spades, 2 of Hearts, 8 of Spades
michae1 checked
_Don19_ bet - $3.99

Yet again I've flopped the best possible hand. Nice. However, it's vulnerable to flush and straight draws. Don has bet well over half the pot and must be trying to protect something like AA, AK, KK or maybe QQ. I'm ahead. But don't want to give the others a chance to call. I there bet the pot back.

The_Edge raised - $16.41
R_director folded
michae1 folded
_Don19_ went all-in - $14.95
The_Edge called - $18.94
** Dealing the turn: 6 of Spades
** Dealing the river: 2 of Diamonds
_Don19_ shows: Ace of Hearts, Ace of Clubs
The_Edge shows: 9 of Diamonds, 9 of Clubs
The_Edge wins $40.22 from the main pot

Here's another hand from $0.10/$0.20 NL at Laddies.

I had 22 on the button and limp in with 3 others.

The flop is 782 rainbow. So I've got a set. And am vulnerable to a higher set or straight draw.

The first guy min bets and the next raises 2/3 the pot. Phil Gordon states that, assuming someone is betting a draw, it's a good idea to raise their bets. As if you call and they miss their draws, you won't be able to get more out of them in later rounds. I therefore re-raised the pot back at him. The min-better folded and the raiser called.

The turn was an Ace. I didn't think the other guy had Aces as he would have raised pre-flop. And other than giving him two pair, I don't see how it could really have help him. Anyway, he checked, so I bet the pot and he called.

The river was a scary Jack. Completing a straight draw. However, I didn't think that the chances of my opponent have 9T were particularly high. So I re-raised his pot-sized bet all in. He called. And I won the pot. Nice.

Juice got me Phil Gordon's Little Blue Book for my birthday. I've been reading it on the train, and have enjoyed the way Phil describes his thought processes as he attempts to maximise his profits. However, implementing the ideas won't be that easy as I'll need to put in the hours, and it doesn't present an ABC strategy as prescribed in SSHE.

Last night I went to The Gardening Club in Covent Garden with my buddy Abhir. It was full of people who looked like they belongs in Mark's call centre. Anyway, this girl starts rubbing herself against me. Which is quite understandable. But when she turned around and I saw her face, she looked like Peter Pan. So I ran all te way back to Balham!!!!!!

I was at Laddies, $0.10/$0.20 NL cash game, on the BB. The dealer gives me T8o....

I see a cheap flop. With five other players.

The flop is 972 rainbow. No flush draw. And gives me a straight draw.

I check.

The guy next to me bets half the pot. There's one caller before me. So I call.

The turn is a 3. And does not give anyone a flush draw.

The flop better bets 1/2 the pot. The other guy folds.

So I'm getting about 4.75:1 to hit the nuts. And only 3/1 pot odds. Not really good. But I called hoping to hit and get more cash out of him.

I called and hit a jack on the river to complete my nut straight.

I bet the pot, but the opposition folded, thus preventing me from collecting more than 3/1 on my investment on the turn.

Should I have checked the river?
Should I not have called the turn?
Should I have bet a smaller amount?

The first week of the year had its ups and downs. A couple of spreadsheet bugs costs a lot of cash in the trading arena. But other people were off the ball as well, so I managed to finish the week with a modest profit. By Friday I was pretty knackered, and was therefore happy enough when my buddies decided to pop round for some live poker, rather than requiring me to go somewhere in a vain attempt to be sociable.

The two features of the game where a couple of complete crazies. When two players are calling big bets with high card Jacks, it's hard to keep a straight face. I can't believe they managed to scare me off when I had two pair on a 3 heart flop. Oh well. You live and learn.

It was also my birthday last week. I've finally hit the age of 20 and have departed my teens. Hopefully I'll stop getting ID'd when buying lottery tickets. Tonight I'm off to a Morocan place in Balham called Dish Dash. I think there will be 17 of us so it should be nice, though I may be required to go to that hole know as "The Swan" afterwards.

My New Years Resolution is to be more dedicated to my websites. I made some good cash in the first half of 2006, and managed to easily buy a 40" LCD TV with the profits. Unfortunately the second half of the year was less spectacular. I've just paid £58 to renew my years' hosting blapper.com, and need to make sure I get value out of it.

The main site, www.blapper.com, will probably make enough to cover costs if I leave it alone. But that's hardly impressive. The other sites, such as rants.blapper.com are having trouble even getting indexed by google. Not sure why. As the rants forum is full of original content, while blapper.com has a lot of affiliate pages mixed in with the original stuff.

Anyway, the plan for the next couple of weeks will be to log IRC channels and upload them onto the Community site...