Texas Calculatem and Poker Office Blog

I think my magic is gone, and at the moment I'm definitely a -EV player. I got lucky and came third in an 18 player tourney with Juice, Rosie and Acorn the other day. The win involved rivering two superior (well, they were ahead when I pushed, but I actually think they were both idiots) players. In one hand my K9o all in defeated AA when I hit a runner runner straight. Good times. Since then, I've tried some limit Poker at Jokerstars. My problem, I believe, is that I'm suffering from a weak form of tricky player syndrome. I'm raising with nothing, with the aim of either gaining a free card on the turn, or seeing if the player will fold. However, when the player calls my raise, and then bets the turn, there isn't much I can do but fold. That has cost me a bit. And it's even more grating when I know my opponent probably doesn't have anything.

In order to improve my game, I believe that I need to reduce the aggression, and just try to play the odds. To reduce the boredom, I might need to multi-table, though that will make it harder to read the opposition. I should probably try to select better tables too. If a table only has one maniac who's raising everything, the pots will be small, and variance high as I'll need to call down his bets with marginal hands. Tables with many loose passive players should help me increase my bankroll in a steadier and less volatile manner.

Aside from Poker, I'm off work this week and just being a bum. I might go and play squash with my retired mate. Either that, or watch him attempt some lines from that pickupguide site. I'm tempted to bring him out of retirement and get him a trading job, but while he's keen, the timing isn't quite right yet.

I read my first newspaper of many months this morning. The front page article was something to do with educating children about finances. That's all well and good, but lots of financial incentives provide poor value for the average citizen. Take ISAs for example...

Stocks and shares ISAs are limited to £7k per year. The benefit of having shares inside an ISA is that the profits are tax free. However, capital gains taxes on shares are only applied to profits above £7k per annum. So unless an investor has a large portfolio, or gets lucky on a risky punt (not the sort of thing the government should be encouraging), there is little chance of them seeing any benefit from an ISA. In fact, they'll probably lose out, as ISA's have admin fees. I think I have to pay £25 per annum with Selftrade, even though I'm not making more than £7k per year.

Doing some geeky maths, assuming shares go up by an average of around 15% a year, an investor is going to need £47k in their ISA before they see the tax free benefits. Ignoring property, that's more than most people have.

Therefore, like my Poker game, ISAs are -EV. The main beneficiaries are the stock brokers who get to charge admin fees to the blind masses.