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Stats is fun!
"Stats is fun!", or so my old statistics teacher used to say.
I've been dreaming about the odds at Pacific. Last night was not profitable as
a - I didn't really hit cards
b - I allowed myself to be caught in raising wars
c - I gave too much value to my top pairs
Top pairs aren't worth much at Pacific. Two pair is the minimum required to win a hand. I've therefore compiled a few useful stats...
You have a pair on the flop using one of your two pocket cards. The odds of you hitting two pair or trips on the flop are 8.4:1.
(5 outs, 47 cards remaining, 47/5-1=8.4).
You have a pair on the flop using one of your two pocket cards. However, the board is showing a flush draw (i.e. 2 suited cards). If you do not hold a card of this suit, then 2 of the 5 cards required to improve your hand to two pair or trips could give someone else a flush. You therefore have 3 outs and the odds of hitting them are 14.7:1. Not good! The check-raises mentioned in Small Stakes Hold'Em aren't really relevant on these tables. If there are 5 players in a raised pot (most hands are raised) then there won't be many instances where a raise will block the 4:1 odds required to make a flush draw profitable. So what can be done in such circumstances? Well... Just raise away and pur your faith in the gods and variance!
I've been dreaming about the odds at Pacific. Last night was not profitable as
a - I didn't really hit cards
b - I allowed myself to be caught in raising wars
c - I gave too much value to my top pairs
Top pairs aren't worth much at Pacific. Two pair is the minimum required to win a hand. I've therefore compiled a few useful stats...
You have a pair on the flop using one of your two pocket cards. The odds of you hitting two pair or trips on the flop are 8.4:1.
(5 outs, 47 cards remaining, 47/5-1=8.4).
You have a pair on the flop using one of your two pocket cards. However, the board is showing a flush draw (i.e. 2 suited cards). If you do not hold a card of this suit, then 2 of the 5 cards required to improve your hand to two pair or trips could give someone else a flush. You therefore have 3 outs and the odds of hitting them are 14.7:1. Not good! The check-raises mentioned in Small Stakes Hold'Em aren't really relevant on these tables. If there are 5 players in a raised pot (most hands are raised) then there won't be many instances where a raise will block the 4:1 odds required to make a flush draw profitable. So what can be done in such circumstances? Well... Just raise away and pur your faith in the gods and variance!
