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Long but for lazy Poker Players
My ALL IN quest has started well enough. I managed 2 ALL IN's and won them both. One was QQ and the other was KK. My overall profit is $2.07.
The below information is a more detailed analysis my strategy and it looks favourable. I have posted it on pso to get some feedback on it. I doubt it'll be positive but this won't be a scalable Poker strategy and is just a bit of fun anyway.
Here are some exciting sums for anyone who's interested...
(stats from here)
The chances of being dealt on of my "ALL IN" (AA-QQ or AKs) is
3 * 0.45 (AA-QQ)
+
0.3 (AKs)
=
0.165
From my own calculations...
P(AA-QQ) = 3 * (3/52) [first card A-Q] * (3/51) [once we have an A-Q, the next card must be A-Q]
=
.136
P(AKs) = (1/13) [An Ace first] * (1/51) [next card must be king of Ace's suit] * 2 (two ways [of getting this - AK or KA]
=.30
Summing the 2 gives 0.166 which is close enough to that website.
Anyway, to continue...
Assuming I play a $0.01/$0.02 table it's going to cost me $0.30 in blinds per 100 hands.
For each 100 hands I'll get 1.66 premium hands.
On average, I'll win 66.6% of these (average the equity values from the previous post).
I'm going to asssume a 5% rake.
I recon I'll atleast double up when I win and I'm depositing $1.00 a time. So for every 100 hands I'll get atleast
0.95 [rake] * 1.66 [# hands I'll get] * 0.666 [Winning Percentage] * 1.00 [profit]
= $1.05
So to conclude, I expect to make atlesat $1.05-$0.30=$0.75 per hundred hands played if one player calls.
- I'll be getting extra dead money from folded blinds.
- A lot of players will see my miniscule all-ins with hands that aren't within my Premium Hand Range.
- I won't always be going all-in with $1.00 as it's a lot of effort to redeposit after EVERY blind.
- I have assumed that only 1 player will call my all-in. I need to analyse what will happen if this is not so.
- I have assumed that other players will be able to match my all-in in full, rather than going all in themselves, with $0.50, for example.
Conclusion
Playing on $0.01/$0.02 tables, I should make over $0.75 per 100 hands played.
The below information is a more detailed analysis my strategy and it looks favourable. I have posted it on pso to get some feedback on it. I doubt it'll be positive but this won't be a scalable Poker strategy and is just a bit of fun anyway.
Here are some exciting sums for anyone who's interested...
(stats from here)
The chances of being dealt on of my "ALL IN" (AA-QQ or AKs) is
3 * 0.45 (AA-QQ)
+
0.3 (AKs)
=
0.165
From my own calculations...
P(AA-QQ) = 3 * (3/52) [first card A-Q] * (3/51) [once we have an A-Q, the next card must be A-Q]
=
.136
P(AKs) = (1/13) [An Ace first] * (1/51) [next card must be king of Ace's suit] * 2 (two ways [of getting this - AK or KA]
=.30
Summing the 2 gives 0.166 which is close enough to that website.
Anyway, to continue...
Assuming I play a $0.01/$0.02 table it's going to cost me $0.30 in blinds per 100 hands.
For each 100 hands I'll get 1.66 premium hands.
On average, I'll win 66.6% of these (average the equity values from the previous post).
I'm going to asssume a 5% rake.
I recon I'll atleast double up when I win and I'm depositing $1.00 a time. So for every 100 hands I'll get atleast
0.95 [rake] * 1.66 [# hands I'll get] * 0.666 [Winning Percentage] * 1.00 [profit]
= $1.05
So to conclude, I expect to make atlesat $1.05-$0.30=$0.75 per hundred hands played if one player calls.
Analysis Holes
:Positive
- I'll be getting extra dead money from folded blinds.
- A lot of players will see my miniscule all-ins with hands that aren't within my Premium Hand Range.
Negative / Unknown
- I won't always be going all-in with $1.00 as it's a lot of effort to redeposit after EVERY blind.
- I have assumed that only 1 player will call my all-in. I need to analyse what will happen if this is not so.
- I have assumed that other players will be able to match my all-in in full, rather than going all in themselves, with $0.50, for example.
Conclusion
Playing on $0.01/$0.02 tables, I should make over $0.75 per 100 hands played.
