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The All In Strategy
Introduction
This post will provide a statistical analysis of the all in strategy that I have been experimenting with lately. In brief, the strategy involves waiting for a good premium hand and going all in. It sounds simple and it is!
Definitions
Excellent Premium Hand
I have defined an Excellent Premium Hand as a hand in the folling group:
AA-99, Aks-AQs, KQs-KJs, QJs
These are the sorts of hands that I believe other players will call my all ins with.
All In Hand (AIH)
Using
(Useful probabilties can be found here, though the table above was all calculated manually in Excel)
The table shows that hands AA-QQ have a positive expectancy against one or two callers. AKs has a breakeven expectancy.
I shall therefore define my All In Hands as AA-QQ and AKs. The reason why I have included AKs is because I feel that hands won through stealing blinds could give it a slight edge.
The All In Strategy
The All In Strategy (AIS) will be executed as follows:
- Sit down at a No Limit Holdem table.
- Buy in with 50+ Big Blinds but less than the lowest pot on the table
- Post Blinds and check/fold
- If you're the on the big blind, check and are dealt the nuts on the flop then go all in.
- If you're dealt an AIH then go all in pre-flop.
- If you win a hand then leave the table and come back when you're able to buy in with your original amount again.
Estimated Expected Returns
At this point I am unable to estimate any probabilities for how many opponents will call, fold or leave dead money in the pot when I go all in. However, I will do my best to make some realistic estimates.
For my estimates I shall consider a $1/$2 full 10 player table where I buy in with $100 and refill up to $100 everytime I post a big blind. Every 100 hands will therefore cost $30 in blinds.
Summing the probabilities of being dealt an AIH gives the probability of being dealt an AIH. This is 1.67%. So I will be dealt 1.67 AIh's per 100 hands.
If my opponents all fold when I go All In then I'll get over
$3 * 0.0167 * 100 = $5.00
from the blinds (over, since there could be money from callers who fold). This will give me atleast $5.00 and is non-optimal considering I'll be paying $30 in blinds.
If 1 opponent calls, and assuming a 5% rake, then I'll win over
$100*($0.63+$0.42+$0.18)*0.95=$116.24.
[N.B. The above uses rounded figures that I ignored in Excel]
per 100 hands. This will give me an expected return of over $86.24 per 100 hands.
Similarly, if 2 opponents call then I'll win over
$200*($0.48+$0.25+$0.06)*100=$148.42
per 100 hands. This will give me an expected return of over $118.42 per 100 hands.
Possible Calculation Errors
- The All ins might not always be $100 as that would require a rebuy after every blind is posted (a lot of effort!).
- Loose players could call me with hands that aren't in the Excellent Premium Hand set. But this will work in my favour and therefore does not concern me.
- Players are always coming and going and seats could easily remain unfilled. The blinds will therefore cost a little more than I have estimated.
The Story So Far
This strategy sounds very far fetched due to its simplicity. I have therefore beeing trying it out on $0.01/$0.02 tables at Noble Poker with a $1.00 buy in.
results so far
Conclusion
It's currently too early to tell whether or not this is a viable Poker Strategy. The analysis is looks good but practical issues could easily see it fail. The only way forward is to run a practical experiment. I shall do this and results shall be posted on Poker Profits.
Comments:
# SirFWALGMan wrote at 9:53 PM :
Interesting post. It just over simplifies things alot though. In addition, I think .01/.02 players will tend to call your all in bets with 66-JJ more often than 100/NL players, thus your expected earn rate is highest at the lowest levels.<< Home
